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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Lazio 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fiorentina beat Lazio 1-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 0.90 xG and Lazio 0.90 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lazio landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 0.93 / defence 0.95 against Lazio attack 0.80 / defence 0.76, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 34% | Draw 33% | Lazio 34%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 59%, Lazio 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fiorentina's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Lazio's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.41 PPG, Lazio 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Lazio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights