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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Fiorentina run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Juventus.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fiorentina beat Juventus 3-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.19 xG and Juventus 1.25 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Fiorentina beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Juventus landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.08 / defence 0.94 against Juventus attack 1.09 / defence 0.85, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 33% | Draw 31% | Juventus 36%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Fiorentina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 54%, Juventus 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fiorentina's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Juventus's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.59 PPG, Juventus 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Juventus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights