Fiorentina vs Inter – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Inter (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fiorentina face Inter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fiorentina host Inter at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 February 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Fiorentina — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fiorentina have posted 1W 6D 3L at Stadio Artemio Franchi — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Inter are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fiorentina register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Inter in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Inter have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 10 encounters against Fiorentina's 2 victories.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2026, ended 1–2 with Inter winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Inter have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Fiorentina trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Inter trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 62% versus Inter 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 58% | Inter 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.16 xG and Inter 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 0.835 / defence 1.143 | Inter attack 1.152 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.503. Data: 48 Fiorentina games / 48 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 22% | Draw 22% | Inter 56%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 4.55 | Draw 4.55 | Inter 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Inter (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Inter as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 60% | Inter 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 22% | Draw 22% | Inter 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Fiorentina 1.16 / Inter 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 0.835 / def 1.143 | Inter attack 1.152 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Inter (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Inter xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Inter kick off?
Fiorentina vs Inter is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 21 February 2027 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
Where is Fiorentina vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Inter part of?
Fiorentina vs Inter is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 22% chance of winning, Inter a 56% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fiorentina and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Inter?
Record (10 meetings): Fiorentina 2W | Draws 2 | Inter 6W.
What form are Fiorentina and Inter in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Inter (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (0.83) and Inter's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
22%
4.56
22%
4.61
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
3.14
1.98
Inter xG
4.56
22%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
14%
7.24
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
3%
33.02
18%
5.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.98 for Inter, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Inter?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fiorentina come into this having played 48 games, going 11W 17D 20L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Inter sit at 2.33 PPG from 48 outings (35W 7D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.29 PPG clear of Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Fiorentina's home form reads 4W 11D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Inter have taken 2.17 points per game from 24 outings (16W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fiorentina are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.40 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fiorentina have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Inter in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Inter in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 11W 17D 20L in their last 48 games (1.04 PPG), while Inter have gone 35W 7D 6L in their last 48 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 0.96 PPG; Inter away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Inter in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2023, when Inter won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fiorentina's record when hosting Inter specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Fiorentina
2
Draws
6
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 2, Inter have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when Inter 2-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 67%, Inter 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Fiorentina) and 50% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Inter in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Inter?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Fiorentina's games and 46% of Inter's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Fiorentina's recent games and 50% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and Inter tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Inter in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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