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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Fiorentina run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Inter.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fiorentina beat Inter 3-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 0.87 xG and Inter 2.20 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Fiorentina beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Inter landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.10 / defence 1.02 against Inter attack 1.63 / defence 0.58, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 12% | Draw 23% | Inter 66%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Fiorentina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 55%, Inter 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fiorentina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Inter's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.65. Form was overturned, with Fiorentina winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Inter (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights