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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Hellas Verona defy the odds to beat Fiorentina 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hellas Verona beat Fiorentina 1-2 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.45 xG and Hellas Verona 1.01 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hellas Verona outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 0.95 / defence 1.21 against Hellas Verona attack 0.75 / defence 1.21, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 47% | Draw 26% | Hellas Verona 26%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Hellas Verona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 60%, Hellas Verona 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fiorentina's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Hellas Verona's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Hellas Verona winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights