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Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Cremonese 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fiorentina beat Cremonese 1-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.39 xG and Cremonese 1.15 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.23 / defence 1.24 against Cremonese attack 0.84 / defence 0.95, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 42% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 31%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 60%, Cremonese 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fiorentina's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Cremonese's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.35 PPG, Cremonese 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights