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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Como defy the odds to beat Fiorentina 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Como beat Fiorentina 1-2 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.20 xG and Como 1.20 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Como outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.09 / defence 1.17 against Como attack 0.93 / defence 0.95, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 36% | Draw 28% | Como 36%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Como win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 58%, Como 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fiorentina's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Como's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.63 PPG, Como 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Como win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Como (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights