Fiorentina 0-2 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Como fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fiorentina host Como at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 February 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fiorentina stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
Como — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Como have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fiorentina 1.10 PPG, Como 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Fiorentina, 0 for Como and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 2–0 with Fiorentina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Fiorentina in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Como in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 56% versus Como 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 56% | Como 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.90 xG and Como 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.226 / defence 0.883 | Como attack 0.677 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.305. Data: 62 Fiorentina games / 24 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 61% | Draw 27% | Como 12%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.64 | Draw 3.70 | Como 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (61%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Fiorentina 70% | Como 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Como | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 61% | Draw 27% | Como 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 49% | xG Fiorentina 1.90 / Como 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.226 / def 0.883 | Como attack 0.677 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Como xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Como kick off?
Fiorentina vs Como kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Como?
Fiorentina 0 - 2 Como.
Where is Fiorentina vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Como part of?
Fiorentina vs Como is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 61% chance of winning, Como a 12% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Como?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Fiorentina and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Como?
Record (1 meetings): Fiorentina 1W | Draws 0 | Como 0W.
What form are Fiorentina and Como in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Como (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fiorentina's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Como's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
61%
1.63
27%
3.76
12%
8.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.68
0.78
Como xG
1.63
61%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
8.27
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
15%
6.69
Win to Nil
28%
3.56
2%
55.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Fiorentina and 0.78 for Como, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Como?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 29W 15D 18L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Como's form line: 26W 17D 19L from 62 games, 1.53 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.65 PPG, Como on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 1.90 PPG from 31 outings (17W 8D 6L).
On the road, Como have gone 10W 9D 12L from 31 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.39 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Como
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Como in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 29W 15D 18L in their last 62 games (1.65 PPG), while Como have gone 26W 17D 19L in their last 62 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Como away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.90 PPG; Como away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fiorentina and Como runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fiorentina's record when hosting Como specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Fiorentina
0
Draws
2
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Como?
From 4 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 2, Como have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Como last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Como 1-2 Fiorentina.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 64%, Como 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Fiorentina) and 45% (Como). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Como in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Como?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Fiorentina's games and 48% of Como's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Fiorentina's matches and 45% of Como's.
Do Fiorentina and Como tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Como in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Como cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fiorentina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Fiorentina 0-2 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.90 xG and Como 0.78 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fiorentina fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Como outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.23 / defence 0.88 against Como attack 0.68 / defence 1.14, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 61% | Draw 27% | Como 12%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Como win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 56%, Como 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Como's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.65 PPG, Como 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Como win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Como (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.