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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fiorentina and Atalanta share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fiorentina and Atalanta finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 0.98 xG and Atalanta 1.14 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 0.81 / defence 0.78 against Atalanta attack 1.25 / defence 0.99, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 31% | Draw 30% | Atalanta 39%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 56%, Atalanta 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fiorentina's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Atalanta's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.41 PPG, Atalanta 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights