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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Fiorentina defy the odds to beat Atalanta 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fiorentina beat Atalanta 1-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 0.93 xG and Atalanta 1.73 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atalanta landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.19 / defence 0.87 against Atalanta attack 1.67 / defence 0.60, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 19% | Draw 26% | Atalanta 55%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Fiorentina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 55%, Atalanta 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fiorentina's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Atalanta's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.61 PPG, Atalanta 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights