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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Empoli and Venezia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Empoli and Venezia finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 0.87 xG and Venezia 0.98 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Empoli beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Venezia outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.59 / defence 1.18 against Venezia attack 0.73 / defence 1.18, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Empoli 29% | Draw 35% | Venezia 35%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 36%, Venezia 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Empoli's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Venezia's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.59 average — above their attacking norm. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights