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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Torino defy the odds to beat Empoli 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Torino beat Empoli 0-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 0.96 xG and Torino 0.86 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Empoli fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.67 / defence 0.80 against Torino attack 0.84 / defence 1.07, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Empoli 36% | Draw 32% | Torino 31%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Torino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 32%, Torino 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Empoli's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 51% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Torino's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Empoli 1.04 PPG, Torino 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Torino win broke the near-deadlock. Torino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights