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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lecce cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Empoli.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lecce beat Empoli 1-3 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.00 xG and Lecce 0.70 xG, a combined 1.70. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lecce outscored their 0.70 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.68 / defence 0.89 against Lecce attack 0.59 / defence 1.14, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Empoli 41% | Draw 36% | Lecce 24%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Lecce win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 33%, Lecce 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Empoli's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.

Lecce's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Empoli 0.98 PPG, Lecce 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lecce win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lecce (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.61 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights