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Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Empoli 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Genoa beat Empoli 1-2 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 0.75 xG and Genoa 0.80 xG, a combined 1.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Genoa outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.62 / defence 0.79 against Genoa attack 0.77 / defence 0.90, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Empoli 31% | Draw 36% | Genoa 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Genoa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 33%, Genoa 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Empoli's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.

Genoa's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Empoli 1.00 PPG, Genoa 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights