Empoli 0-0 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Empoli take on Fiorentina.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena to take on Empoli. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Empoli have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fiorentina — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Fiorentina have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fiorentina away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Empoli) versus 1.60 (Fiorentina). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Empoli, 1 for Fiorentina and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Empoli trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Fiorentina trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 33% versus Fiorentina 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 30% | Fiorentina 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.16 xG and Fiorentina 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.750 / defence 0.718 | Fiorentina attack 1.022 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.266. Empoli's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Empoli's defence rating of 0.718 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Empoli games / 43 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 37% | Draw 38% | Fiorentina 25%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.70 | Draw 2.63 | Fiorentina 4.00. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 25% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 30% | Fiorentina 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 37% | Draw 38% | Fiorentina 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Empoli 1.16 / Fiorentina 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.750 / def 0.718 | Fiorentina attack 1.022 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Fiorentina xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Fiorentina kick off?
Empoli vs Fiorentina kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Fiorentina?
Empoli 0 - 0 Fiorentina.
Where is Empoli vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Fiorentina part of?
Empoli vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 37% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 25% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Empoli and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Fiorentina?
Record (6 meetings): Empoli 2W | Draws 3 | Fiorentina 1W.
What form are Empoli and Fiorentina in?
Empoli (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Empoli's attack at 0.75x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.69
38%
2.66
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.09
0.93
Fiorentina xG
2.69
37%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
8%
12.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Empoli and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Empoli and 0.93 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Empoli's recent record stands at 11W 12D 20L from 43 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 13L across 43 games — 1.53 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fiorentina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fiorentina by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Empoli heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 5W 7D 9L from 21 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 7W 5D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Empoli are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.58 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Early Season
Fiorentina
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 11W 12D 20L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 18W 12D 13L in their last 43 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Fiorentina away?
Fiorentina's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.05 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Empoli's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Empoli
4
Draws
2
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Fiorentina?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 2, Fiorentina have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Fiorentina 2-1 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Empoli see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 24%, Fiorentina 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Empoli and 38% for Fiorentina.
On the defensive side: Empoli keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Empoli have failed to score in 62% of games; Fiorentina in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 24% of Empoli's recent matches and 52% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Empoli's recent games and 38% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Empoli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 6, as Empoli and Fiorentina drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.16 xG and Fiorentina 0.93 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Empoli fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Fiorentina landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.75 / defence 0.72 against Fiorentina attack 1.02 / defence 1.09, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 37% | Draw 38% | Fiorentina 25%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 30%, Fiorentina 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fiorentina's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.