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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Empoli and Bologna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Empoli and Bologna finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 0.94 xG and Bologna 1.71 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.66 / defence 1.07 against Bologna attack 1.23 / defence 1.04, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Empoli 19% | Draw 28% | Bologna 54%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 36%, Bologna 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Empoli's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Bologna's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights