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Dominant Cremonese run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Pisa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cremonese beat Pisa 3-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.28 xG and Pisa 0.99 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pisa landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.66 / defence 1.32 against Pisa attack 0.68 / defence 1.59, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cremonese 43% | Draw 29% | Pisa 29%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 52%, Pisa 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cremonese's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Pisa's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.23 PPG, Pisa 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights