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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Napoli cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cremonese.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Napoli beat Cremonese 0-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.97 xG and Napoli 1.11 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cremonese fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Napoli outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.93 / defence 1.19 against Napoli attack 0.84 / defence 0.85, drawn from 16/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cremonese 31% | Draw 30% | Napoli 39%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 55%, Napoli 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cremonese's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Napoli's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.55. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights