Cremonese 1-2 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Cremonese take on Juventus.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cremonese and Juventus meet at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 November 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cremonese have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 3W 7D 0L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Juventus (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventus's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Cremonese, 1.80 for Juventus — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cremonese, 2 for Juventus and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2023, ended 0–2 with Juventus winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Juventus half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 68% versus Juventus 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 55% | Juventus 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.02 xG and Juventus 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.889 / defence 1.078 | Juventus attack 0.797 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 1.032. Data: 9 Cremonese games / 47 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 36% | Draw 36% | Juventus 28%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.78 | Draw 2.78 | Juventus 3.57. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. This conflicts with form data: Cremonese 70% | Juventus 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 36% | Draw 36% | Juventus 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Cremonese 1.02 / Juventus 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.889 / def 1.078 | Juventus attack 0.797 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.191 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Juventus xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Juventus kick off?
Cremonese vs Juventus kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Juventus?
Cremonese 1 - 2 Juventus.
Where is Cremonese vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Juventus part of?
Cremonese vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 36% chance of winning, Juventus a 28% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cremonese and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Juventus?
Record (2 meetings): Cremonese 0W | Draws 0 | Juventus 2W.
What form are Cremonese and Juventus in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Juventus (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.89x the league average against Juventus's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Juventus's attack (0.80x) against Cremonese's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.80
36%
2.78
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Cremonese xG
Total xG
1.91
0.89
Juventus xG
2.80
36%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
10%
9.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.89 for Juventus, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Cremonese have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 19W 19D 9L record — D-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventus's form line: 22W 19D 6L from 47 games, 1.81 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Cremonese against 1.81 for Juventus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 1.57 PPG from 23 outings (8W 12D 3L).
On the road, Juventus have gone 8W 10D 5L from 23 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Cremonese are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.49 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Juventus in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Juventus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Juventus in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 19W 19D 9L in their last 47 games (1.62 PPG), while Juventus have gone 22W 19D 6L in their last 47 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Juventus away?
Cremonese's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.57 PPG; Juventus away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Juventus in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Juventus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won 5-0 on 12 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Juventus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cremonese
0
Draws
4
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Juventus?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 0, Juventus have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2026, when Juventus 5-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 74%, Juventus 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cremonese) and 35% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Juventus in 30%; Juventus in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Juventus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Cremonese's games and 52% of Juventus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cremonese's recent games and 35% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Juventus tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Juventus in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Juventus defy the odds to beat Cremonese 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Cremonese 1-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.02 xG and Juventus 0.89 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Juventus outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.89 / defence 1.08 against Juventus attack 0.80 / defence 0.97, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 36% | Draw 36% | Juventus 28%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Juventus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 55%, Juventus 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Juventus's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.62 PPG, Juventus 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventus win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.