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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Fiorentina run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Cremonese.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fiorentina beat Cremonese 1-4 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.99 xG and Fiorentina 1.18 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Fiorentina outscored their 1.18 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.63 / defence 1.11 against Fiorentina attack 0.92 / defence 1.23, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cremonese 31% | Draw 29% | Fiorentina 40%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 52%, Fiorentina 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cremonese's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Fiorentina's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.30 PPG, Fiorentina 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights