🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Cremonese 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna beat Cremonese 1-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.79 xG and Bologna 1.78 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.66 / defence 1.31 against Bologna attack 1.15 / defence 0.94, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cremonese 16% | Draw 23% | Bologna 61%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 52%, Bologna 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cremonese's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Bologna's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.31 PPG, Bologna 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights