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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cremonese and Atalanta share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cremonese and Atalanta finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.88 xG and Atalanta 1.58 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.90 / defence 1.12 against Atalanta attack 1.32 / defence 0.83, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cremonese 19% | Draw 29% | Atalanta 52%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 58%, Atalanta 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cremonese's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Atalanta's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.60 PPG, Atalanta 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights