🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cremonese.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Cremonese 1-3 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.76 xG and AS Roma 1.19 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. AS Roma outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.87 / defence 1.17 against AS Roma attack 0.95 / defence 0.73, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cremonese 22% | Draw 34% | AS Roma 44%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 55%, AS Roma 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cremonese's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

AS Roma's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.55 PPG, AS Roma 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights