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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Como cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lecce.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Como beat Lecce 3-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.24 xG and Lecce 0.73 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Como beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.14 / defence 0.82 against Lecce attack 0.74 / defence 0.89, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Como 48% | Draw 30% | Lecce 22%, with Como to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 42%, Lecce 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Como's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Lecce's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Como arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. Como (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Lecce (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights