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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Como and Cremonese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 5, as Como and Cremonese drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.22 xG and Cremonese 0.86 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.07 / defence 0.90 against Cremonese attack 0.84 / defence 0.96, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Como 44% | Draw 30% | Cremonese 26%, with Como to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 43%, Cremonese 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Como's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Cremonese's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Como 1.33 PPG, Cremonese 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights