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Dominant Cagliari run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Venezia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cagliari beat Venezia 3-0 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.53 xG and Venezia 1.13 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cagliari beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Venezia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.03 / defence 1.19 against Venezia attack 0.83 / defence 1.24, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cagliari 46% | Draw 27% | Venezia 27%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 54%, Venezia 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cagliari's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Venezia's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Cagliari winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights