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Udinese cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cagliari.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Udinese beat Cagliari 0-2 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.45 xG and Udinese 1.50 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cagliari fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.02 / defence 1.02 against Udinese attack 1.33 / defence 1.13, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cagliari 36% | Draw 26% | Udinese 38%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 49%, Udinese 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cagliari's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Udinese's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.00 PPG, Udinese 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Udinese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights