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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Cagliari edge out Torino 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cagliari beat Torino 2-1 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.46 xG and Torino 0.94 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.94 / defence 1.03 against Torino attack 0.79 / defence 1.28, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cagliari 49% | Draw 27% | Torino 24%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 49%, Torino 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cagliari's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Torino's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cagliari 0.99 PPG, Torino 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights