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Shock result as Sassuolo defy the odds to beat Cagliari 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sassuolo beat Cagliari 1-2 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.05 xG and Sassuolo 0.98 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sassuolo outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.84 / defence 1.12 against Sassuolo attack 0.83 / defence 1.03, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cagliari 34% | Draw 35% | Sassuolo 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Sassuolo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 46%, Sassuolo 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cagliari's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Sassuolo's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights