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Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Cagliari 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Napoli beat Cagliari 0-1 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.19 xG and Napoli 1.27 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cagliari fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Napoli attack 1.09 / defence 0.97, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cagliari 34% | Draw 27% | Napoli 38%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 49%, Napoli 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cagliari's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Napoli's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 0.99. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Napoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights