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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Cagliari run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Lecce.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cagliari beat Lecce 4-1 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.22 xG and Lecce 1.17 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Cagliari beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.83 / defence 1.15 against Lecce attack 0.78 / defence 1.12, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cagliari 36% | Draw 31% | Lecce 33%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 53%, Lecce 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cagliari's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Lecce's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cagliari 0.93 PPG, Lecce 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm. Lecce (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights