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Prediction vindicated as Lazio edge out Cagliari 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lazio beat Cagliari 1-2 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.30 xG and Lazio 1.61 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.04 / defence 1.11 against Lazio attack 1.10 / defence 0.92, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cagliari 28% | Draw 29% | Lazio 42%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 53%, Lazio 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cagliari's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Lazio's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights