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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Inter cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cagliari.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter beat Cagliari 0-2 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.58 xG and Inter 1.38 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cagliari fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.14 / defence 0.93 against Inter attack 1.32 / defence 1.19, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cagliari 41% | Draw 26% | Inter 32%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Inter win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 48%, Inter 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cagliari's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Inter's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Inter (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights