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Dominant Inter run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Cagliari.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter beat Cagliari 0-3 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 0.78 xG and Inter 2.57 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.86 / defence 1.10 against Inter attack 1.74 / defence 0.68, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cagliari 9% | Draw 15% | Inter 76%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 76%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 54%, Inter 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cagliari's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Inter's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights