Cagliari vs Hellas Verona – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Cagliari edge out Hellas Verona 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cagliari beat Hellas Verona 1-0 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.72 xG and Hellas Verona 1.52 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hellas Verona landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.95 / defence 1.33 against Hellas Verona attack 0.86 / defence 1.35, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cagliari 43% | Draw 24% | Hellas Verona 34%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 55%, Hellas Verona 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cagliari's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Hellas Verona's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cagliari 0.92 PPG, Hellas Verona 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights