Cagliari vs Hellas Verona – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cagliari's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Hellas Verona's attack (0.86x) against Cagliari's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
43%
2.35
24%
4.21
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Cagliari xG
Total xG
3.24
1.52
Hellas Verona xG
2.35
43%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
9%
10.71
6%
16.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.52 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.