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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cagliari and Genoa share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cagliari and Genoa finished level at 3-3 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.13 xG and Genoa 1.31 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Cagliari beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Genoa outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Genoa attack 1.10 / defence 1.11, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cagliari 30% | Draw 31% | Genoa 39%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 45%, Genoa 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cagliari's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Genoa's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cagliari 0.94 PPG, Genoa 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights