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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cagliari and Genoa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 28, as Cagliari and Genoa drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.25 xG and Genoa 1.08 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.97 / defence 1.13 against Genoa attack 0.79 / defence 0.98, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cagliari 38% | Draw 32% | Genoa 30%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 54%, Genoa 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cagliari's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Genoa's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cagliari 0.94 PPG, Genoa 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights