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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cagliari and Fiorentina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cagliari and Fiorentina finished level at 1-1 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.34 xG and Fiorentina 1.28 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.08 / defence 1.01 against Fiorentina attack 1.06 / defence 1.06, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cagliari 38% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 35%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 50%, Fiorentina 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cagliari's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Fiorentina's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights