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Shock result as Fiorentina defy the odds to beat Cagliari 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fiorentina beat Cagliari 1-2 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.39 xG and Fiorentina 1.35 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.07 / defence 1.08 against Fiorentina attack 1.10 / defence 1.05, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cagliari 37% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 35%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Fiorentina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 53%, Fiorentina 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cagliari's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Fiorentina's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights