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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 33

Kick-off

Wed 23 Apr 2025

17:30

Venue

Unipol Domus

Competition

Serie A

Italy

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Cagliari Win

37%

Cagliari

2.69

28%

Draw

3.63

35%

Fiorentina

2.84

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.1%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.0%

Home win

0 – 1

8.7%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.39

Cagliari xG

Total xG

2.74

1.35

Fiorentina xG

37%
28%
35%
CagliariDrawFiorentina

2.69

37%

Home win

3.63

28%

Draw

2.84

35%

Away win

Goals Markets

76%

Over 1.5

1.32

24%

Under 1.5

4.17

52%

Over 2.5

1.92

48%

Under 2.5

2.08

29%

Over 3.5

3.45

71%

Under 3.5

1.41

14%

Over 4.5

7.14

86%

Under 4.5

1.16

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

57%

BTTS Yes

1.77

43%

BTTS No

2.30

Clean Sheet

26%

Cagliari

3.85

25%

Fiorentina

4.01

Win to Nil

10%

Cagliari

10.34

9%

Fiorentina

11.38

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.5 8.7 5.9 2.6 0.9 0.2
1 9.0 12.1 8.2 3.7 1.2 0.3
2 6.3 8.4 5.7 2.5 0.9 0.2
3 2.9 3.9 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1
4 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1
5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.389
λ Away (xG) 1.347
Total xG 2.736
League avg home goals 1.239
League avg away goals 1.132
Cagliari attack strength 1.068
Cagliari defence strength 1.084
Fiorentina attack strength 1.097
Fiorentina defence strength 1.049
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 70 / 70