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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Cagliari edge out Cremonese 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cagliari beat Cremonese 1-0 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.34 xG and Cremonese 0.85 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.88 / defence 0.99 against Cremonese attack 0.74 / defence 1.20, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cagliari 48% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 24%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 49%, Cremonese 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cagliari's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Cremonese's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cagliari 0.96 PPG, Cremonese 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights