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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bologna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cagliari.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna beat Cagliari 0-2 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.32 xG and Bologna 1.00 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cagliari fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Bologna outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.00 / defence 1.01 against Bologna attack 0.92 / defence 1.11, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cagliari 43% | Draw 30% | Bologna 27%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 46%, Bologna 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cagliari's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bologna's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights