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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Unipol Domus plays host to Cagliari versus Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 19 October 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Cagliari (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cagliari have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Cagliari have posted 4W 2D 4L at Unipol Domus — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Bologna have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Bologna's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Cagliari, 1.10 for Bologna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Cagliari 2W, Bologna 4W, 0D.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with Bologna winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Cagliari — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Bologna — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 50% versus Bologna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 46% | Bologna 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.32 xG and Bologna 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.997 / defence 1.009 | Bologna attack 0.918 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.077. Data: 44 Cagliari games / 44 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cagliari 43% | Draw 30% | Bologna 27%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Bologna 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cagliari are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cagliari if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 50% | Bologna 40% BTTS from recent games.

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