Cagliari vs Atalanta – Match Report

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Prediction vindicated as Atalanta edge out Cagliari 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atalanta beat Cagliari 0-1 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 0.95 xG and Atalanta 2.09 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cagliari fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Atalanta landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.91 / defence 1.21 against Atalanta attack 1.34 / defence 0.77, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cagliari 16% | Draw 20% | Atalanta 64%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 53%, Atalanta 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cagliari's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Atalanta's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Atalanta (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights