Bologna vs Udinese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Udinese make the trip to to face Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna's home record at : 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at this season.
Udinese (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Udinese have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Bologna against 1.50 for Udinese. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Bologna, who have won 4 of the last 10 meetings against Udinese — a 5D 1W return for the visitors.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Bologna winning.
The historical record gives Bologna a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bologna — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Udinese — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 42% versus Udinese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 42% | Udinese 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.12 xG and Udinese 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.860 / defence 1.012 | Udinese attack 1.218 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Udinese have an above-average attack strength of 1.218 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Bologna games / 40 Udinese games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bologna 28% | Draw 26% | Udinese 47%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Udinese 2.13. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Bologna 20% | Udinese 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 28% | Draw 26% | Udinese 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Bologna 1.12 / Udinese 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.860 / def 1.012 | Udinese attack 1.218 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Udinese (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Udinese xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Udinese kick off?
Bologna vs Udinese is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 22 November 2026.
What competition is Bologna vs Udinese part of?
Bologna vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 28% chance of winning, Udinese a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bologna and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Udinese?
Record (10 meetings): Bologna 4W | Draws 5 | Udinese 1W.
What form are Bologna and Udinese in?
Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Udinese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bologna's attack rating (0.86) and Udinese's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (1.22x) against Bologna's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
28%
3.58
26%
3.91
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.64
1.52
Udinese xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
6%
16.37
15%
6.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.9 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Bologna and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Bologna and 1.52 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 16W 8D 16L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Udinese's form line: 15W 9D 16L from 40 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Bologna against 1.35 for Udinese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.10 PPG from 20 outings (6W 4D 10L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 9W 3D 8L from 20 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bologna are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.23 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Early Season
Udinese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Udinese in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 16W 8D 16L in their last 40 games (1.40 PPG), while Udinese have gone 15W 9D 16L in their last 40 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Udinese away?
Udinese's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.10 PPG; Udinese away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Bologna or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Udinese in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bologna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 3-0 on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
5
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Udinese have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Bologna 1-0 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Udinese?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bologna see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 30%, Udinese 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Bologna) and 55% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Bologna have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Bologna's recent matches and 55% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Bologna's recent games and 55% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Udinese tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Udinese in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.