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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Genoa travel to to take on Sassuolo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 November 2026, 17:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Sassuolo have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sassuolo haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 6W 0D 4L at — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sassuolo are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.

Genoa — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Genoa haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Genoa's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Sassuolo) versus 1.10 (Genoa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Sassuolo, 5 for Genoa and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Genoa winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Table Context

The standings have Genoa (7th, 0 pts) 10 places above Sassuolo (17th, 0 pts) — a 0-point gap in Serie A.

At home this season, Sassuolo have gone 0W 0D 0L. Genoa have gone 0W 0D 0L on their travels.

In-Play Data

Sassuolo trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Genoa trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 53% versus Genoa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 55% | Genoa 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.28 xG and Genoa 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.078 / defence 1.055 | Genoa attack 0.855 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.178. Data: 38 Sassuolo games / 38 Genoa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Sassuolo 41% | Draw 28% | Genoa 31%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Genoa 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 40% | Genoa 20% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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