Sassuolo vs Genoa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Genoa travel to to take on Sassuolo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 November 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Sassuolo have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sassuolo have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 7W 0D 3L at — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sassuolo are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Genoa — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genoa's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Sassuolo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Genoa, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Sassuolo.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Genoa winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Genoa have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Sassuolo trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Genoa trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 55% versus Genoa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 58% | Genoa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.27 xG and Genoa 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.154 / defence 1.012 | Genoa attack 0.756 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Data: 40 Sassuolo games / 40 Genoa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 44% | Draw 28% | Genoa 28%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Genoa 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Genoa lead the H2H ledger, but Sassuolo carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 50% | Genoa 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 44% | Draw 28% | Genoa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Sassuolo 1.27 / Genoa 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 1.154 / def 1.012 | Genoa attack 0.756 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Genoa xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Genoa kick off?
Sassuolo vs Genoa is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 22 November 2026.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Genoa part of?
Sassuolo vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 44% chance of winning, Genoa a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sassuolo and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Genoa?
Record (6 meetings): Sassuolo 0W | Draws 2 | Genoa 4W.
What form are Sassuolo and Genoa in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Genoa (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sassuolo's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
44%
2.27
28%
3.51
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.22
0.94
Genoa xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
8%
13.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Sassuolo and 0.94 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sassuolo come into this having played 40 games, going 15W 7D 18L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Sassuolo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 1.02 PPG from 40 outings (10W 11D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sassuolo on 1.30 PPG, Genoa on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sassuolo's home form reads 10W 2D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 0.95 points per game from 20 outings (4W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sassuolo are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.02 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Genoa in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 15W 7D 18L in their last 40 games (1.30 PPG), while Genoa have gone 10W 11D 19L in their last 40 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Genoa away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.60 PPG; Genoa away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Genoa have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Sassuolo's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Sassuolo
2
Draws
4
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Genoa?
From 6 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 0, Genoa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Genoa 2-1 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 50%, Genoa 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Sassuolo) and 45% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Sassuolo have failed to score in 30% of games; Genoa in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 55% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Sassuolo's recent games and 45% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Genoa tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Genoa in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.