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Dominant Bologna run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Pisa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna beat Pisa 4-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.73 xG and Pisa 1.01 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pisa landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.16 / defence 0.88 against Pisa attack 0.99 / defence 1.25, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bologna 53% | Draw 25% | Pisa 21%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 51%, Pisa 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bologna's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Pisa's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bologna 1.60 PPG, Pisa 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights