Bologna vs Parma – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Parma travel to to take on Bologna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 May 2027, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna's home record at : 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at this season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Parma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Parma have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bologna 1.40 PPG, Parma 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Bologna's 20% and Parma's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bologna, 2 for Parma and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Parma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Parma trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 42% versus Parma 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bologna 42% | Parma 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.06 xG and Parma 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.861 / defence 1.012 | Parma attack 0.763 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Data: 40 Bologna games / 40 Parma games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bologna 37% | Draw 31% | Parma 32%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Parma 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 20% | Parma 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2027, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 37% | Draw 31% | Parma 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Bologna 1.06 / Parma 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.861 / def 1.012 | Parma attack 0.763 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Bologna (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Parma xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Parma kick off?
Bologna vs Parma is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 30 May 2027.
What competition is Bologna vs Parma part of?
Bologna vs Parma is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 37% chance of winning, Parma a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Bologna and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Parma?
Record (4 meetings): Bologna 1W | Draws 1 | Parma 2W.
What form are Bologna and Parma in?
Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Parma (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bologna's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
37%
2.67
31%
3.26
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.01
0.95
Parma xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Bologna and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Bologna and 0.95 for Parma, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 16W 8D 16L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Parma's form line: 11W 12D 17L from 40 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.40 PPG, Parma on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.10 PPG from 20 outings (6W 4D 10L).
On the road, Parma have gone 6W 6D 8L from 20 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 0.70 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Early Season
Parma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Parma in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 16W 8D 16L in their last 40 games (1.40 PPG), while Parma have gone 11W 12D 17L in their last 40 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.10 PPG; Parma away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Bologna or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Parma in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bologna's record when hosting Parma specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bologna
1
Draws
2
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Bologna have won 1, Parma have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Bologna 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Parma see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Bologna 30% BTTS, Parma 30%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Bologna and 25% for Parma.
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Parma in 40%; Bologna have failed to score in 45% of games; Parma in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Bologna's recent matches and 30% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Bologna's recent games and 25% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.