Genoa vs Bologna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 37 as Genoa welcome Bologna to Stadio Luigi Ferraris. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 May 2027 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Genoa have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genoa's home record at Stadio Luigi Ferraris: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Genoa are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Bologna's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Genoa's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Genoa have won 3, Bologna 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2026, ended 3–2 with Genoa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Genoa in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Bologna in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 50% versus Bologna 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 50% | Bologna 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.02 xG and Bologna 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.914 / defence 1.104 | Bologna attack 0.938 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Data: 40 Genoa games / 40 Bologna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Genoa 30% | Draw 28% | Bologna 42%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Bologna 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Genoa 50% | Bologna 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2027, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 30% | Draw 28% | Bologna 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Genoa 1.02 / Bologna 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.914 / def 1.104 | Bologna attack 0.938 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Bologna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Bologna xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Bologna kick off?
Genoa vs Bologna is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 23 May 2027 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Where is Genoa vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Bologna part of?
Genoa vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 30% chance of winning, Bologna a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Genoa and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Bologna?
Record (8 meetings): Genoa 3W | Draws 3 | Bologna 2W.
What form are Genoa and Bologna in?
Genoa (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Genoa's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
30%
3.36
28%
3.56
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.30
1.28
Bologna xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
8%
12.05
15%
6.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Genoa and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Genoa and 1.28 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Genoa's recent record stands at 10W 11D 19L from 40 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 16W 8D 16L across 40 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 1.02 PPG, Bologna on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 6W 4D 10L from 20 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 10W 4D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.23 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Bologna in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 10W 11D 19L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while Bologna have gone 16W 8D 16L in their last 40 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.10 PPG; Bologna away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Genoa or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Bologna in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genoa and Bologna runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Genoa's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Genoa
3
Draws
2
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Bologna?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 3, Bologna have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Genoa 3-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Bologna?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 45%, Bologna 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Genoa) and 50% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Genoa have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Genoa's recent matches and 55% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Genoa's recent games and 50% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Bologna tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Bologna in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.